Predicting the next big commodity is a little like chasing lightning in a bottle—thrilling, but elusive. From tulip bulbs in 17th-century Holland to Bitcoin in the 2010s, human history is filled with moments when everyday items suddenly turned into high-stakes assets.
So, can we really forecast the next big commodity boom? Or are we just at the mercy of global chaos and collective psychology?
Let’s take a walk through history, economics, and a little human nature to find out.
The Boom-Bust Blueprint: A Historical Pattern
Looking back, the rise and fall of commodities follow a surprisingly familiar pattern:
Gold Rush (1848–1855): Gold fever swept California after a simple discovery at Sutter’s Mill. The promise of wealth drew hundreds of thousands—most of whom found dust, not fortune. Smithsonian Magazine explains why.
Oil Craze (1970s): After OPEC’s embargo, oil became geopolitical gold. Countries scrambled to secure energy, and prices skyrocketed. The world realized that oil wasn’t just black goo—it was power.
Lithium & Rare Earths (2000s–2020s): With the rise of smartphones and EVs, lithium, cobalt, and other rare earth elements went from obscurity to being labeled the “new oil”.
The common thread? Scarcity meets utility meets mass speculation.
What Drives a Commodity Frenzy?
Historically, three key forces have pushed commodities into the spotlight:
1. Technological Disruption
New tech often transforms a humble material into a goldmine. Silicon, once just sand, became the foundation of the digital age. The same could be said for graphene, a one-atom-thick material now hailed as a potential game-changer in electronics and batteries.
2. Geopolitical Shocks
War, trade embargoes, or sanctions can squeeze supply chains and suddenly boost the value of a big commodity. Think Russia-Ukraine tensions impacting wheat and natural gas prices. Reuters breaks this down.
3. Climate & Environmental Policy
Commodities tied to sustainable development—like lithium, copper, or even water—are becoming more crucial as the world pivots to green energy. IEA reports the role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions.
The Human Factor: Why We Keep Getting It Wrong
Despite the data, humans are famously bad at predicting commodity trends. Why?
Herd Mentality: Once enough people believe something is valuable, demand surges—even irrationally. Remember the
FOMO: Investors often jump in late, chasing trends and inflating bubbles.
Narrative Bias: We love stories. “This metal will power the future” is easier to believe than supply chain charts and mining feasibility studies.
So… What Could Be Next?
Let’s be clear—this isn’t investment advice. But based on current trends, here are a few “maybe” candidates:
Copper – Dubbed “Dr. Copper” because of its economic forecasting powers, copper is vital for EVs, wind turbines, and smart grids. McKinsey sees a potential shortage.
Water Rights – In drought-prone regions, water is no longer just a utility—it’s a strategic asset.
Uranium – With nuclear power gaining green credentials, uranium demand could rise. World Nuclear Association weighs in.
Graphite & Rare Earths – Often overshadowed by lithium, these materials are crucial for next-gen batteries and electronics.
Final Thoughts: Prediction with a Dose of Humility
Trying to guess the next big commodity breakout is like forecasting fashion trends—part science, part art, and part wishful thinking. But understanding the forces at play—technology, geopolitics, environment, and our own psychology—can help us read the tea leaves a little better.
History tells us that the ‘next big thing’ often looks boring until, suddenly, it’s not. So, watch the margins, stay curious, and don’t ignore the small stuff. Because in the world of commodities, today’s sleeper might just be tomorrow’s big commodity superstar.