The typical suspects—oil-rich countries, China’s demand, or the shift to green energy—frequently come up when discussing the next commodities supercycle. Africa, however, is a crucial player that is subtly positioned to assume the lead.
And no, this isn’t just more hype about unrealised potential. It’s true. It’s taking place. It’s also complicated.
Why Africa Right Now?
The world’s markets are changing once more. Because of the green tech boom, demand for vital minerals like cobalt, lithium, and rare earths is skyrocketing. People are referring to copper as the new oil. And you know what? Some of the world’s largest reserves of these commodities for the future are found in Africa.
Consider the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which produces over 70% of the cobalt used worldwide. Or Zimbabwe, which has enormous amounts of lithium. Ghana is producing more gold. As prices rise, there is fresh interest in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.
However, this goes beyond the figures. It has to do with the increasing awareness around the world that Africa is now a strategic partner rather than only a source.
The Possibilities
1. Sustainable Future Constructed on African Ground
Africa has the potential to be the driving force behind the global transition to sustainable energy. Wind turbines, solar panels, and electric cars all depend on minerals that are plentiful in Africa.
2. Development of Local Value
In-country refining and processing is becoming more and more popular since it has the potential to boost GDP, provide jobs, and develop infrastructure. Countries are looking at downstream investments rather than exporting raw resources.
3. The Use of Geopolitical Power
African countries have a unique opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength, if they play their cards correctly, as the West, China, and other countries compete for access.
4. Regional Cooperation & Trade Programs
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has the potential to improve international negotiating power, standardise laws, and accelerate cross-border cooperation.
The Hazards and Facts
But things aren’t always easy. There are many obstacles in the way of sustainable expansion through commodities:
Rebooting the Resource Curse?
Over-reliance on commodities can lead to price instability, governance problems, and the exclusion of other industries. Consider diamonds in Sierra Leone or oil in Nigeria.
Hazards to the Environment and Society
If mining is not managed properly, it can result in community displacement, water pollution, and land degradation, particularly for minerals with high demand.
Debt Traps and Foreign Exploitation
There are conditions connected to some agreements, particularly those involving foreign financing and infrastructure swaps. The boundary between collaboration and exploitation is quite thin.
Issues with Governance and Corruption
Revenue inflows might encourage corruption rather than progress if there are weak institutions and a lack of openness.
What is the Next Step, Then?
Africa is at a turning point. The rise in commodities may serve as a springboard for sustainable, green, and equitable development, or it may exacerbate environmental degradation and inequality.
The capacity to create processes that put long-term value ahead of immediate advantages, policy decisions, and human capital investments will make the difference.
Local communities must gain from this. Deals must be equitable. Leaders also need to have the guts to envision transformation rather than just extraction.
Concluding Remarks
There is more to Africa’s role in the upcoming commodity boom than just economics. It has to do with agency. The continent is becoming a collaborator, a power broker, and a rule maker rather than a passive participant in a global game.
The boom is on the horizon. The question is whether Africa will benefit from it or just power it.
Also read: Understanding Market Cycles: How to Navigate Booms and Busts